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Paper Title:- Performance of WRF (ARW) over River Basins in Odisha, India During Flood Season 2014

Author Name:- Sumant Kr. Diwakar, Dr. (Mrs.) Surinder Kaur, Dr. Ashok Kumar Das, Anuradha Agarwala

Abstract:- Operational Weather Research & Forecasting – Advanced Research WRF in short WRF (ARW) 9 km x 9 km Model (IMD) based rainfall forecast of India Meteorological Department (IMD) is utilized to compute rainfall forecast over River basins in Odisha during Flood season 2014. The performance of the WRF Model at the sub-basin level is studied in detail. It is observed that the IMD’s WRF (ARW) day1, day2, day3 correct forecast range lies in between 31-47 %, 37-43%, and 28-47% respectively during the flood season 2014.

Keywords: GIS; WRF (ARW); IMD; Flood 2014; Odisha

I.  Introduction

Forecast during the monsoon season river sub-basin wise in India is difficult task for meteorologist to give rainfall forecast where the country have large spatial and temporal variations. India Meteorological Department (IMD) through its Flood Meteorological Offices (FMO) is issuing Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) sub-basin wise for all Flood prone river basins in India (IMD, 1994). There are 10 FMOs all over India spread in the flood prone river basins and FMO Bhubaneswar, Odisha is one of them. The Categories in which QPF are issued are as follows

Rainfall (in mm) 0 1-10 11-25 26-50 51-100 >100

Odisha is an Indian state on the subcontinent’s east coast, by the Bay of Bengal. It is located between the parallels of 17.49’ N and 22.34’ N Latitudes and meridians of 81.27’ E and 87.29’ E Longitudes. It is surrounded by the Indian states of West Bengal to the north-east and in the east, Jharkhand to the north, Chhattisgarh to the west and north-west and Andhra Pradesh to the south. Bhubaneswar is the capital of Odisha.

Odisha is the 9th largest state by area in India and the 11th largest by population. Odisha has a coastline about 480 km long. The narrow, level coastal strip including the Mahanadi river delta supports the bulk of the population. On the basis of homogeneity, continuity and physiographical characteristics, Odisha has been divided into five major morphological regions. The Odisha Coastal Plain in the east, the Middle Mountainous and Highlands Region, the Central Plateaus, the western rolling uplands and the major flood plains.

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